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The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 against the spread, consisting of 3 relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to think so. At least in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic talked to several bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14 at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really reputable gamer."

Despite the fact that respected cash has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are piling on Texas.

"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.

While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has crept up somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be shocked if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, but I presently welcome any Boise State cash."

Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.

So why is OSU favored?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic consulted with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded money pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A somewhat higher bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.

"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant relocation of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over so far.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."

He did note, though, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line flip? Simply put, the wagering action.

Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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